There are many different ways of determining the success of the start to this wonderful New Mexico United team. They’re currently leading the Western Conference on points, leading USL in stadium attendance, and the excitement of these fans can’t be measured. But just how good is this team by the numbers?
An interesting way to approach this question is using the Soccer Power Index (SPI) numbers from the website FiveThirtyEight.com. SPI combines an offensive and defensive rating to represent every team around the world and assign it an SPI number to show the “true talent” of the team based on quality of shots, blocks, chance creation; the underlying numbers that define a team’s worth. This number is also weighted by league so one could compare every team from every league with the same number.
There are many different ways of determining the success of the start to this wonderful New Mexico United team. They’re currently leading the Western Conference on points, leading USL in stadium attendance, and the excitement of these fans can’t be measured. But just how good is this team by the numbers?
An interesting way to approach this question is using the Soccer Power Index (SPI) numbers from the website FiveThirtyEight.com. SPI combines an offensive and defensive rating to represent every team around the world and assign it an SPI number to show the “true talent” of the team based on quality of shots, blocks, chance creation; the underlying numbers that define a team’s worth. This number is also weighted by league so one could compare every team from every league with the same number.
Compared to the rest of the world, how good is New Mexico United?
Compared to the rest of the world, how good is New Mexico United?
FiveThirtyEight currently analyzes 632 teams around the world, with their highest rated team (Manchester City) currently holding an SPI score of 94.4 and their lowest team holding a rating of 5.5 (Yeovil Town, only one spot below fellow USL Western Conference team Tacoma Defiance with a rating of 5.6). New Mexico United has a current SPI rating of 30.2, good for 456th best in the world. For reference, this rating puts us above Bolton Wanderers (29.8) and just below Ipswich Town (32.5) at the bottom of the English Championship League, above Coventry City (26.2) and below Burton Albion (32.3) in the upper-mid table of English League 1, and above Colorado Rapids, Vancouver Whitecaps, and FC Cincinnati (27.2, 29.6, and 29.7 respectively) and just below the New England Revolution (31.3) in comparison to MLS. Finally, Cardiff City, who recently played in the English Premier League, have a rating of 59.5, higher than any MLS team currently. This will make for a good test for New Mexico United when they face off on July 18th.
FiveThirtyEight currently analyzes 632 teams around the world, with their highest rated team (Manchester City) currently holding an SPI score of 94.4 and their lowest team holding a rating of 5.5 (Yeovil Town, only one spot below fellow USL Western Conference team Tacoma Defiance with a rating of 5.6). New Mexico United has a current SPI rating of 30.2, good for 456th best in the world. For reference, this rating puts us above Bolton Wanderers (29.8) and just below Ipswich Town (32.5) at the bottom of the English Championship League, above Coventry City (26.2) and below Burton Albion (32.3) in the upper-mid table of English League 1, and above Colorado Rapids, Vancouver Whitecaps, and FC Cincinnati (27.2, 29.6, and 29.7 respectively) and just below the New England Revolution (31.3) in comparison to MLS. Finally, Cardiff City, who recently played in the English Premier League, have a rating of 59.5, higher than any MLS team currently. This will make for a good test for New Mexico United when they face off on July 18th.
How does this compare to the Western Conference of the USL?
How does this compare to the Western Conference of the USL?
At the beginning of the year, FiveThirtyEight assigned New Mexico United an SPI rating of 16.8. This is not a poor rating for the USL, but looking at the first chart, we can see that the average western conference team this year is around an SPI of 20, so it was below average for USL. As an expansion team, the ranking was fair enough, but after the recent rise (especially after the April 13th match against Real Monarchs), New Mexico is now considered a team much better than the average in our conference.
At the beginning of the year, FiveThirtyEight assigned New Mexico United an SPI rating of 16.8. This is not a poor rating for the USL, but looking at the first chart, we can see that the average western conference team this year is around an SPI of 20, so it was below average for USL. As an expansion team, the ranking was fair enough, but after the recent rise (especially after the April 13th match against Real Monarchs), New Mexico is now considered a team much better than the average in our conference.
Compared to expansion teams, how has our rise looked?
Compared to expansion teams, how has our rise looked?
Austin Bold started the year with the highest rating of the three Western Conference expansion teams, right around that average 20 SPI rating, with New Mexico and El Paso lagging with numbers in the mid teens. Again, looking at chart two, the meteoric rise from the numbers we have put up this year are not even close to being equalled by either of our freshman class opponents, whose numbers are now around half ours.
Austin Bold started the year with the highest rating of the three Western Conference expansion teams, right around that average 20 SPI rating, with New Mexico and El Paso lagging with numbers in the mid teens. Again, looking at chart two, the meteoric rise from the numbers we have put up this year are not even close to being equalled by either of our freshman class opponents, whose numbers are now around half ours.
How does New Mexico United compare to the teams expected to lead the league at the start of the year?
How does New Mexico United compare to the teams expected to lead the league at the start of the year?
Using SPI, FiveThirtyEight is able to make playoff odds for the given teams in the league. At the start of the year, the teams with the higher percent chance to make the playoffs were Phoenix Rising, Orange County, Oklahoma City, and Sacramento, all with odds of 85% to 95% to make the playoffs. We started the year in the middle with odds just below 50%. But again, looking at our numbers over time, this story has drastically changed. We have skyrocketed past all the teams that were predicted to be best in the league, and are now just even with Phoenix in chance to make the playoffs. The jump here is unbelievable.
Using SPI, FiveThirtyEight is able to make playoff odds for the given teams in the league. At the start of the year, the teams with the higher percent chance to make the playoffs were Phoenix Rising, Orange County, Oklahoma City, and Sacramento, all with odds of 85% to 95% to make the playoffs. We started the year in the middle with odds just below 50%. But again, looking at our numbers over time, this story has drastically changed. We have skyrocketed past all the teams that were predicted to be best in the league, and are now just even with Phoenix in chance to make the playoffs. The jump here is unbelievable.
Compared to the top teams in the Western Conference right now, how good is New Mexico United?
Compared to the top teams in the Western Conference right now, how good is New Mexico United?
To be fair, this is getting a bit repetitive, but by the numbers, this team is doing exceptionally well. Another thing SPI allows FiveThirtyEight to predict is the expected points of a team at the end of a season. The current expected top 4 on the site are Phoenix Rising, New Mexico United, Fresno, and Reno. But the rise from mid-table, and probably missing playoffs, to just two expected points behind Western Conference staples Phoenix Rising is amazing. That’s the quality of this team.
To be fair, this is getting a bit repetitive, but by the numbers, this team is doing exceptionally well. Another thing SPI allows FiveThirtyEight to predict is the expected points of a team at the end of a season. The current expected top 4 on the site are Phoenix Rising, New Mexico United, Fresno, and Reno. But the rise from mid-table, and probably missing playoffs, to just two expected points behind Western Conference staples Phoenix Rising is amazing. That’s the quality of this team.
Even in the tougher conference (West Conference averages a rating of 20.1 and East Conference averages 19.8), this squad stands out above the rest. The increase of 13.4 SPI, 17+ expected points, and 50% of playoff chances from the start of the season is higher than any team in USL. No matter what happens, we have made an impact and we are a team to be reckoned with.
Even in the tougher conference (West Conference averages a rating of 20.1 and East Conference averages 19.8), this squad stands out above the rest. The increase of 13.4 SPI, 17+ expected points, and 50% of playoff chances from the start of the season is higher than any team in USL. No matter what happens, we have made an impact and we are a team to be reckoned with.
