Things looked good for the Rowdies when the first USL Championship predictions dropped in February on the data website FiveThirtyEight.
The number crunchers liked the Rowdies to make the playoffs and gave them the third-best odds of winning the championship before the season began. The Rowdies then won their season opener over the New York Red Bulls II 1-0.
That was in March.
A lot has changed since because of the coronavirus. The Eastern and Western conference setups were scrapped for eight small groups of teams. The season was chopped in half. A new playoff system was born. But the Rowdies are still projected to be among the top teams in the 35-team league.
Tampa Bay has the second-best chance of making the final (18 percent) in FiveThirtyEight’s predictions. The website sets their chances of winning it all at 9 percent, tied with Indy Eleven for second best, behind Phoenix.
The switch to a group-playoff format — in which the top two teams from each group qualify for the postseason — bodes well for the Rowdies under FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index, which is site’s best estimate of a team’s overall strength based on the site’s metrics. It places the Rowdies and fellow Group H competitor Miami FC in a tie at No. 3 overall in the USL Championship.
The competition in four-team Group H quickly tails off after the two Florida clubs.
Charleston is ranked No. 22 in the Soccer Power Index and Atlanta United 2 is No. 33, third worst in the league. The Rowdies’ non-group schedule doesn’t appear threatening, either. Tampa Bay draws North Carolina (No. 14), Birmingham (No. 23) and Philadelphia (No. 35).
Not only does the Rowdies’ revised schedule consistently pit them against some of the league’s weaker teams, but the Rowdies avoid some of the best USL Championship teams in the regular season.
The Rowdies were originally supposed to face Indy Eleven (No. 2 in the Soccer Power Index) and Louisville City (No. 7), teams that made it to the Eastern Conference final in 2019, twice. The Rowdies now avoid both.
And if the Rowdies make good on FiveThirtyEight’s projection and qualify for the playoffs as the No. 1 (58 percent chance) or No. 2 seed (29 percent) seed in Group H, they should draw a favorable first-round opponent out of Group G, one of the weaker groups.
When the Rowdies resume their season at 7:30 Saturday against Atlanta United 2 on Saturday at Al Lang Stadium, select fans from supporters groups Ralph’s Mob and Skyway Casuals will be in attendance. The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports Sun.
Contact Kyle Wood at kwood@tampabay.com. Follow him @Kkylewood.
